Publications

Construction is a significant contributor to the Australian economy, accounting for 8.1% of GDP.

Construction activity decreased towards the end of 2019 against the backdrop of weaker economic growth and political issues (shifting Brexit deadlines and a snap general election in December).

According to Statistics Poland, output of construction and assembly works increased 2.6% in 2019.

Dutch construction contributes approximately EUR 70 billion to, and accounts for 4.5% of GDP.

According to the national association of construction companies (ANCE), in 2019 construction investment increased 1.7% year-on-year, to about EUR 130 billion.

Growth of French GDP is expected to slow down further in 2020, and the outlook for the construction sector is rather subdued across all major segments.

Despite low confidence and modest 1.2% GDP growth in 2019, the construction sector performed quite well in terms of volume, and value added increased more than 2%.

Over the past years construction investment and valued added grew at a faster rate than GDP, benefitting from robust economic growth in Spain, increased foreign investment and low interest rates.

Corporate insolvencies are expected to grow 2.4% in 2020, a pronounced acceleration from the 1.4% increase recorded in 2019, largely resulting from the coronavirus outbreak

The coronavirus outbreak arrives at a time when global growth is already expected to slow and negatively impacts growth and insolvencies.

The herculean task of restructuring Argentina's debt is underway but the risk of a disorderly default remains high.

Despite increasing clouds on the horizon, there remain several bright spots for export opportunities in emerging markets.

US economic growth started to slow down last year, with GDP expected to expand 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the the leftist Morena party governs with a strong political mandate, as a Morena-led coalition has a majority in both houses of Congress.

As in 2019, Canada´s GDP growth is expected to remain below its long-term trend in 2020 due to sluggish domestic demand and lower export growth.

A hard Brexit and an escalation of EU-US trade disputes are downside risks for export-dependent food companies in the olives/olive oil and meat segments.

In the food retail sector smaller and independent businesses are struggling to remain profitable due to fierce competition and high price pressure.

Food sales growth continues, and the economic impact of the USMCA agreement on consumers and food supply chains is expected to be relatively small.

Despite efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain a hard Brexit remains a major threat, potentially leading to more insolvencies.

In the Belgian food retail segment a comprehensive price war cannot be ruled out for the future, potentially forcing many businesses out of the market.

The ongoing drought has put additional pressure on margins industrywide due to higher input costs, and many businesses are struggling to break-even.

Larger players continue to push the supply chain on price and longer payment terms, adding cash flow challenges to mainly smaller food businesses.

While businesses´ profits are still stable and financials mainly solid, environmental issues pose a potential major challenge for agriculture and food.

Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 1%-2% in 2020, mainly in the troubled meat segment and the beverages and fruit & vegetables subsectors.

The ongoing concentration process in the domestic market will increasingly put small retailers with a poor capacity to generate cash flow under pressure.

A modest margin rebound, but commodity prices, price wars between retailers, changing consumer habits and difficulties in staff recruitment remain issues.

While several Brexit postponenements have provided food exporters with sufficient time to adapt, small retailers suffer from market price pressure.

Domestic metals and steel demand is increasingly affected by subdued investment in the construction sector and a marked demand slowdown from automotive.

Many businesses suffer from decreasing demand from key buyer sectors, high commodity prices, overcapacity, strong competition, and low profitability.

A modest increase in payment delays cannot be ruled out in the coming 12 months, but no substantial insolvency increase is expected for the industry.

The number of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2019, and is expected to increase further in 2020, mainly affecting private-owned producers.

Payment delays and business failures are expected to increase modestly in the coming twelve months, especially in the metal manufacturing segment.

For many businesses both demand and profit margins are expected to deteriorate further, with a moderate rebound expected in H2 of 2020 at the earliest.

The sector benefits from the lift of US import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, with profit margins of steel businesses expected to improve again.

Demand for metals and steel is currently impacted by the slowdown in demand from automotive and reduced investment from other manufacturing industries.

Due to a high level of non-performing assets in the sector banks are now unwilling to provide credit to the industry, causing additional liquidity issues.

Lower demand coupled with decreasing sales prices and higher prices for iron ore have led to deteriorating margins of steel producers and distributors.

Competitive price pressure has led to deteriorationg profit margins for steel producers as well as steel and metals distributors over the past 12 months.

The global economy is losing steam in 2019 and 2020. As the trade war accelerates this, consumer resilience will help avoid recession.

Regaining investors’ trust will be key to Fernández’s success in reinvigorating the Argentinian economy, but it is not the only thing.

Cyprus's economy is on solid ground but crisis legacies persist.

Ireland’s highly open economy is cooling off and demand in export markets is set to remain weak while the domestic economy faces increasing capacity constraints and lower government spending.

The UK is facing the highest increase in insolvencies in 2019 and 2020 in Western Europe.

In Italy, business insolvencies are expected to increase in 2019, by about 4%. This is due to economic stagnation, increased political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.

Economic growth in Germany is expected to cool to 0.6% in 2019 down from 1.6% one year ago.

GDP growth in the Netherlands is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019. After several years of sharp decreases in insolvencies, this year is likely to mark a turning point.

As economic growth decelerates, and the manufacturing sector struggles amid lower global trade, Western Europe expects to close the year with a 2.7% increase in insolvencies.

Insolvencies are rising, and structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions on productivity and investment weigh on the economic expansion.

Due to the recent economic downturn the credit risk situation of some major industries has deteriorated, and insolvencies are expected to increase.

Worries over the impact of adverse external factors like US import tariffs and the Brexit decision on Polish export and investment growth remain.