Publications

Despite higher prices, debt levels continue to rise in many energy exporters. Now is no time for complacency.

Improvements in business performance and credit risk seen in 2017 and the stable outlook for 2018 have led to a performance rating upgrade to “Fair”.

The sector still suffers from fierce competition with prices and profitability at a low level, while major players keep putting pressure on subcontractors.

Tight lending conditions set by banks still hamper sector performance, exacerbating the fact that many construction businesses remain highly geared.

Brexit will undoubtedly impact on the construction market in the coming years, as the industry is very susceptible to shifts in investor confidence.

Banks remain rather cautious in providing loans to the industry due to the large number of insolvencies and generally volatile market demand situation.

Construction expansion is set to continue, underpinned by robust economic growth, with building businesses profit margins expected to remain stable.

The profit and loss accounts of businesses active in energy-intensive segments (e.g. cement) are negatively affected by elevated electricity and gas costs.

While mining-related activity could decline further the prospects for growth in other parts of engineering and non-residential construction are improving.

Payments take 60-120 days on average and the payment behaviour has been rather bad over the past two years, with a high level of protracted payments.

The outlook for 2018 remains subdued and the already low profit margins of many construction businesses are expected to deteriorate further in H1 of 2018.

While the market is still growing, increasing costs for construction materials and transport weigh on the performance of construction businesses.

Smaller contractors continue to suffer from tight cash flow and deteriorating margins due to a lack of projects and higher labour and rental costs.

Construction is expected to have high growth rates over the next five years, mainly due to large infrastructure projects driven by the government.

Canada's GDP growth is forecast to slow down to about 2% in 2018, due to a slowdown in private consumption and government spending.

Costa Rica’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate driven by private consumption, robust private, public and foreign investment, and further export growth.

Mexico seems to be quite resilient in dealing with the uncertainty brought by the NAFTA renegotiations due to its strong economic fundamentals.

Panama´s economy is small, very open, highly diversified, fully dollarized and highly competitive by regional standards. However, challenges remain.

The US administration´s trade policy remains a downside risk, not just for trading partners, but also for the US economy itself.

The economic recovery in emerging market economies is expected to continue strengthening in 2018 and these markets could present opportunities for business.