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Gas prices have bottomed out and Atradius expects them to increase over the period up to 2021. Demand will be more moderate, but fueled primarily by China.

The demand situation is benign, but food businesses continue to suffer from margin pressure due to high labour and energy costs and stiff competition.

While German food exports continue to increase, domestic market conditions have become increasingly difficult. Overcapacity is an issue in some segments.

Smaller food retailer and wholesalers margins remain under pressure and are expected to lose further market share, while customer behaviour is changing.

The current trend of merger and acquisition towards a subsequent consolidation in the US food market is expected to accelerate in the coming years.

Exports are of major importance for the French food sector (especially for the beverages segment), positively contributing to the French trade balance.

Sector risks have increased after the Brexit decision, and exporters to the UK have already suffered shrinking margins due to currency volatility.

Business failures in the Polish food retail segment have increased in 2016, as mainly smaller players suffer from fierce competition and low margins.

Large food businesses are active globally and performing well, while smaller producers and wholesalers generally face tough competition and low margins.

Gearing of food businesses is generally high, and can be a significant risk for companies with weak profitability and focus on the domestic market.