Global economic growth continues to lose steam as a result of past monetary tightening while geopolitical risks increasingly weigh on the outlook.
1. Global – The global economy is continuing to lose steam as past monetary tightening increasingly drags on consumer and business confidence. Geopolitical tensions pose increasing downside risks.
2. Eurozone – Based on sentiment indicators, we expect Inflation is declining rapidly, making the ECB to pause its rate hikes.
3. US and UK – The US economy should avoid a recession but will stagnate in H1 2024 as tight monetary and fiscal policy drags on demand. The UK also faces a very sluggish growth outlook.
4. eurozone growth to remain stagnant at best in the near term, growing only 0.5% in 2024. Emerging markets – We expect EME growth to stay in lower gear in 2023 and 2024, with Emerging Asia leading the other regions, while Latin America is lagging.
5. Credit and insolvencies – For 2023 and 2024 we predict increases in the global level of insolvencies as the adjustment to normal insolvency levels continues. In 2024, the picture across markets is more mixed than in 2023, as more markets approach the normality level in insolvencies.