Publications

The global economic upswing continues to strengthen but US policy uncertainty and a potential trade war could quickly darken the bright skies.

While the return to more market friendly policies has improved Argentina´s medium- and long-term growth prospects, significant downside risks remain.

Despite a rebound, the economic environment remains challenging due to a fragile political landscape, high unemployment, and fiscal policy issues.

Since H2 of 2017 economic growth has recovered from low copper prices and lower demand from China, strikes in the mining sector and weaker domestic demand.

Since H2 of 2017 GDP growth has started to accelerate again, due to a more supportive external environment and the effects of monetary policy stimulus.

In a highly competitive and fragmented market retailers’ profit margins are expected to remain under pressure in 2018 after deteriorating in 2017.

Consumer durables are expected to continue their sales expansion in 2018, although at a lower pace than in 2017 as private consumption growth slows.

In 2018 sales are expected to be affected by slower household spending growth, triggered by a weaker housing market and subdued growth in household income.

The profit margins of Indian non-food retailers are expected to moderate in 2018 due to growing competition and the rising market share of e-commerce.

Despite good sales prospects, there remains substantial uncertainty related to VAT tax issues amongst retailers as tax controls have been intensified.