Publications

Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia, on the back of its large population and growing middle class with higher purchasing power.

The short-term outlook is benign with private consumption expected to increase by more than 6% in 2018, but higher inflation could have a dampening effect.

The best way for smaller retailers to survive is to join a large purchasing association and to compete with e-commerce by providing outstanding service.

As a result of more difficult trading conditions retailers profit margins have deteriorated in H2 of 2017, and further decline is expected in 2018.

The business environment is highly competitive among the different distribution networks, reinforced by the increasing market share of online retailers.

Many long-standing retail chains are highly indebted, often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms, while investors reconsider further lending.

The number of brick-and-mortar stores has significantly decreased - despite the fact that high street also benefits from the current sales increase.

By raising tariffs on steel and aluminium the US president has proudly delivered on a campaign promise. US steel and aluminium producers gain, but it comes at the expense of US metal consuming firms.

Business insolvencies in China are expected to increase further this year in 2018, as companies face tighter credit conditions and the economic rebalancing process is on-going.

The economic growth outlook for 2018 remains robust, but a rather weak banking sector and high foreign indebtedness of domestic firms remain concerns.

The economic outlook remains positive with expected GDP growth rates of more than 5% in 2017 and 2018, and vulnerability to external shocks has declined.

Growth has picked up again in 2017, and the positive trend is expected to continue in 2018, with both domestic demand and exports set to grow further.

The economy shows high growth rates of more than 5% p.a., but high household debt could become an issue should interest rates increase substantially.

GDP growth is expected to remain at above 6% in 2018, but controversial economic policies could hamper business sentiment and foreign investment.

In 2018 the economic performance will be impacted by weaker demand from China and lower domestic demand due to weaker residential construction activity.

The high level of household debt remains a downside risk for the economy, together with a tougher competition from China in a range of industries.

Growing competition from mainland China in the electronics sector require productivity increases and a diversification of the economy in the long-term.

The Thai economy is forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2018, supported by public investments in infrastructure, rising household consumption and exports.

High GDP growth of more than 6% in expected in 2018 driven by domestic demand and exports, but the economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses.

The global economy is in a sweet spot of broad-based economic growth and low interest rates, but we expect this to be bottoming out in 2018.