Publications

Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia, on the back of its large population and growing middle class with higher purchasing power.

The short-term outlook is benign with private consumption expected to increase by more than 6% in 2018, but higher inflation could have a dampening effect.

The best way for smaller retailers to survive is to join a large purchasing association and to compete with e-commerce by providing outstanding service.

As a result of more difficult trading conditions retailers profit margins have deteriorated in H2 of 2017, and further decline is expected in 2018.

The business environment is highly competitive among the different distribution networks, reinforced by the increasing market share of online retailers.

Many long-standing retail chains are highly indebted, often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms, while investors reconsider further lending.

The number of brick-and-mortar stores has significantly decreased - despite the fact that high street also benefits from the current sales increase.

By raising tariffs on steel and aluminium the US president has proudly delivered on a campaign promise. US steel and aluminium producers gain, but it comes at the expense of US metal consuming firms.

Business insolvencies in China are expected to increase further this year in 2018, as companies face tighter credit conditions and the economic rebalancing process is on-going.

The economic growth outlook for 2018 remains robust, but a rather weak banking sector and high foreign indebtedness of domestic firms remain concerns.

The economic outlook remains positive with expected GDP growth rates of more than 5% in 2017 and 2018, and vulnerability to external shocks has declined.

Growth has picked up again in 2017, and the positive trend is expected to continue in 2018, with both domestic demand and exports set to grow further.

The economy shows high growth rates of more than 5% p.a., but high household debt could become an issue should interest rates increase substantially.

GDP growth is expected to remain at above 6% in 2018, but controversial economic policies could hamper business sentiment and foreign investment.

In 2018 the economic performance will be impacted by weaker demand from China and lower domestic demand due to weaker residential construction activity.

The high level of household debt remains a downside risk for the economy, together with a tougher competition from China in a range of industries.

Growing competition from mainland China in the electronics sector require productivity increases and a diversification of the economy in the long-term.

The Thai economy is forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2018, supported by public investments in infrastructure, rising household consumption and exports.

High GDP growth of more than 6% in expected in 2018 driven by domestic demand and exports, but the economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses.

The global economy is in a sweet spot of broad-based economic growth and low interest rates, but we expect this to be bottoming out in 2018.

Despite higher prices, debt levels continue to rise in many energy exporters. Now is no time for complacency.

Improvements in business performance and credit risk seen in 2017 and the stable outlook for 2018 have led to a performance rating upgrade to “Fair”.

The sector still suffers from fierce competition with prices and profitability at a low level, while major players keep putting pressure on subcontractors.

Tight lending conditions set by banks still hamper sector performance, exacerbating the fact that many construction businesses remain highly geared.

Brexit will undoubtedly impact on the construction market in the coming years, as the industry is very susceptible to shifts in investor confidence.

Banks remain rather cautious in providing loans to the industry due to the large number of insolvencies and generally volatile market demand situation.

Construction expansion is set to continue, underpinned by robust economic growth, with building businesses profit margins expected to remain stable.

The profit and loss accounts of businesses active in energy-intensive segments (e.g. cement) are negatively affected by elevated electricity and gas costs.

While mining-related activity could decline further the prospects for growth in other parts of engineering and non-residential construction are improving.

Payments take 60-120 days on average and the payment behaviour has been rather bad over the past two years, with a high level of protracted payments.

The outlook for 2018 remains subdued and the already low profit margins of many construction businesses are expected to deteriorate further in H1 of 2018.

While the market is still growing, increasing costs for construction materials and transport weigh on the performance of construction businesses.

Smaller contractors continue to suffer from tight cash flow and deteriorating margins due to a lack of projects and higher labour and rental costs.

Construction is expected to have high growth rates over the next five years, mainly due to large infrastructure projects driven by the government.

Canada's GDP growth is forecast to slow down to about 2% in 2018, due to a slowdown in private consumption and government spending.

Costa Rica’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate driven by private consumption, robust private, public and foreign investment, and further export growth.

Mexico seems to be quite resilient in dealing with the uncertainty brought by the NAFTA renegotiations due to its strong economic fundamentals.

Panama´s economy is small, very open, highly diversified, fully dollarized and highly competitive by regional standards. However, challenges remain.

The US administration´s trade policy remains a downside risk, not just for trading partners, but also for the US economy itself.

The economic recovery in emerging market economies is expected to continue strengthening in 2018 and these markets could present opportunities for business.

The International Debt Collections Handbook is a key tool for businesses when it comes to making decisions concerning collections in foreign countries.

Global economic momentum, which began picking up in H2 of 2016, has solidified through the year. However, now is not a time for complacency.

Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.

Revenues of the engineering services industry have rebounded since 2015 as greater liquidity in financial markets helped to boost construction spending.

While UK business insolvencies are forecast to increase in 2017 and 2018, the machinery sector is not expected to follow this deteriorating trend.

Lower demand from key buyer industries and high overcapacity has led to decreasing net profit margins for some businesses over the last two years.

Profit margins have increased over the last 12 months due to the benign business environment, however, a slight decline cannot be ruled out in the future.

Profit margins of machinery businesses rebounded in 2016 and are expected to improve further, but competition remains strong in the domestic market.

As competition is fierce in the domestic market price wars cannot be ruled out, particularly among businesses operating in the lower quality segment.

Key success factors for Danish machinery businesses remains their ability to streamline costs and investment in product development/new technology.