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Italian building cooperatives and smaller companies focused on domestic residential construction remain highly exposed to the risk of business failure.

Future US construction growth could get an additional boost if, as announced, the new US administration invests heavily in infrastructure improvements.

A modest recovery is forecast in the non-residential segment due to stronger private demand and activity picking up in the infrastructure building sector.

Due to the deterioration in demand competition has increased, as builders operate on lower margins in order to obtain the remaining available business.

Private building projects are expected to decrease due to less benign economic conditions and an increased supply completed housing projects and offices.

Construction payment delays and insolvencies have decreased, mainly because financially weak players already left the market during the past downturn.

Value added construction growth is expected to grow by more than 2.5% in 2017, but due to fierce competition many smaller players have low margins.

After rising in 2016, non-payments are expected to increase further in the coming six months, while business closures are also increasing further.

The price of oil has stabilised, largely thanks to OPEC’s shift in policy. The market is expected to rebalance in 2018 driving up prices in the medium term.

The on-going economic slowdown, overcapacities and high indebtedness of many businesses will lead to further increasing business insolvencies in 2017.